Yes, the bearish trifecta.If that sounds like a reprint of one of our Monday MTI memos, bear with us (pun intended). We actually cant tell from Cahns book if the Shemitah Effect really does exist or if it is rather that the global economy is so messed up and it collapses so often that sometimes a downturn just happens to correlate with a Shemitah year. A Shabbat of years A Shmita Year happens every seventh year. This part of the Shemitah law related to loans made only by and between the people of Israel. and yearsthe cycle of seven weeks (7x7) points to the 50th day - Pentecost. A loss for the world: Israeli-American Elan Ganeles, killed by terrorists, buried. Since the Shemitah affected Israel so dramatically and caught up to them even when the Jews didnt follow it for centuries, a valid question might be, Does the Shemitah Effect relate not only to Israel, but does it also have relevance to the entire world? Even though Israel as a nation was specifically given the Law of Moses in the beginning to make them distinct from the nations as Gods people, many of the Old Testament laws have application to all of mankind regardless of whether they are Jew or Gentile. a 40,000 pound "hewn" foundation stone. It turns out that its lacking entire categories pertinent to stock market action: Weve reminded dejected readers throughout 2022 that this year was statistically cursed from the onset. Your email address will not be published. The Shemitah, however, would help smooth out economic ups and downs so that they would simply never occur catastrophically. All during this one Shmita year. . 1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. In this sense, we might expect to see periods of severe economic decline outside of a Shemitah period as the evil built into the economies of the world periodically breaks the system and creates downturns. Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. It can be a fearful thing to turn away from self-reliance in getting what you need and become completely reliant on God, especially if you have no faith. In a personal communication with Adrian Zenz, he told me, from the empirical economic evidence it is impossible to demonstrate or prove a Shemitah effect, as shown also by the low explanatory power scores in my statistical testing, based on different Shemitah time periods. On this year of jubilee each of you shall return to his own property. This is the effect that many authors have written about in recent years, because the last two Shemitah cycles appear to have had a dramatic effect on the worlds economy. Cahns book basically engages in cherry-picking.. How about a rest that lasts 12 months? Now, Im nowhere near as confident as Mr. Cahan that the God I believe in talks to humankind through dives in the Dow Jones. This important Jewish holiday occurs in the fall, usually in Late September or early October (it occurred on Sept. 23 in 2015), and it serves to usher in the start of the New Year of Jubilee. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. In other words, did God design not only Israels economy, but also the world economy to ideally function in much the same way that he instructed Israel through the Law? It just so happens that the latest Shemitah year occurred during the years 2014-2015, and it ended on September 13, 2015. I really appreciate your As business picks up, people invest, share prices rise, people get excited and invest more, still more investors pile into the market, as everyone seems to me making loads of money so effortlessly; theres exhuberance and euphoria until a few smart alicks figure that assets are inflated way beyond their real values; euphoria gives way to doubt to anxiety to full blown panic; people runs for the hills, the cycle screeches into reverse, fortunes are lost and the whole thing starts all over again. Vi har ftt igjen pengene vre, takket vre klagehjelpen vi fikk!Evig takknemlige!!! hewn stones. Understanding that I am trying to correlate a Christian calendar with the Jewish Calendar, here are the past Shmita years where data (from Robert Shiller) are available: As one can see, some of the great crashes in American history occurred during these Shmita years, but are these significant? If Israel followed God in these things, then the Shemitah would bring a great benefit and blessing; essentially providing for each farming family a full year off every seven years from cultivating, planting, and harvesting. Here is the crazy thing, the actual returns are different for the Shmita years. The fears are paper tigers. Compared to non-Shmita years, that is significantly different (p < 0.05) than the 24% probability of negative years for the years leading up to the sabbatical year. This is what the Lord said through Moses in Deuteronomy: At the end of every seven years you shall grant a remission of debts. Today's world is very unstablewatch Bible prophecy unfold before our very eyes! Your harvests aftergrowth you shall not reap, and your grapes of untrimmed vines you shall not gather; the land shall have a sabbatical year. The next Shemitah year will start in September of 2021. "But the seventh year thou shall let it rest This type of downward pressure on the global financial system may also cause the rise and fall of empires and countries, as economic upheavals often cause major political power shifts. Personal debts are forgiven, and commitments to faith are renewed. Were now less than a month away from the end of the current shemita as well as the current yubilee-year. U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam Please invest accordingly. Fruit that grew on trees could be picked by anyone and eaten. Mike Maloney is a smart guy, but hes just a man with a view just take a look on his favourite crypto, Hedera Hashgraph (episode 8). 1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history. Think about this. 2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. In Deuteronomy 15:4, the Lord even promised that there would be no poor among them if they followed these basic Shemitah principles. 1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. is like a two edged sword. In case of abuse, In this Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 photo, Gilad Fine, a religious Jewish farmer from Bnei Netzarim, stands inside his greenhouse, between the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian border. However, the Shemitah years represented by 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1986-1987, 1993-1994, and 2014-2015 all occurred during times of low unemployment and with no subsequent rate increases. Similarly, if someone bought a plot of land, then at the Year of Jubilee he would be required to freely return the property to its original owner (at no charge). Thus, the agricultural effect occurs during the entire year and immediately thereafter, whereas the effect from the debt release occurs only at the end of the year and its wake. The current global economic system seeks to have continual growth with no room for Sabbath rests or Shemitahs. It is a Shabbat of years instead of a Shabbat of days. On 29th Ellul, 5768, 29th September 2008, the Dow Jones Index fell 777.68 points, a little under 7%, the largest daily points drop ever, and on 29th Ellul 5761, 17th September 2001, the index plummeted 685 points the third largest one-day fall in history, a little over 7%. In fact, since 1950, the. Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies, and empires: 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. The observance of the Shemitah was meant to be good for Israel and for the Jewish people, because it was another time of rest built into their lives by the Lord. Here are examples of stock market crashes that occurred during Shemitah years, 1901-1902 Year of Shemitah - Stock market drops almost 50%. He argues that shmita is the key to understanding the mysterious geo-political, economic and financial gyrations of our time. The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. Your email address will not be published. A more in depth analysis would conclude that breathing has nothing to do with eventual death, even if everyone who breaths does eventually die. According to the statutes of this law, the 50th year would include another year like the Shemitah year of not planting or harvesting of crops; therefore the seventh Shemitah year of rest for the land was followed by another Jubilee year of rest, making two consecutive years of no planting and no harvesting every 49 years. One sharp observer who realized that this was not how things worked in the real world was the British economist John Maynard Keynes. The story behind the Shemitah is that the 7th year is the year of resting and releasing. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. Welcome to our community. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. The greater the number of years left before the next Jubilee, the greater would be the value of the land and therefore the price. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Ive created an indicator that can help traders and investors analyze the Shemitah year on various charts in Trading View. Therefore, the poor would never be poor forever and the rich would not continually devour the property of the poor. Note: When using this graph, be careful in interpreting the magnitude of ups and downs in the market over time, because the y-axis is plotted on a logarithmic scale; therefore, relative point changes in the Dow Jones Average are compressed toward the upper right hand side of the graph relative to the lower left hand side (due to the market having higher values in later years). JUST OPINION! 3 What is generally not known, however, is that this same principle of a weekly Sabbath observance was also extended to time frames involving years, not just days. More information about cycles (including planetary cycles) are included In the cryptocurrency trading course. The beginning of American to rise to world power. Affiliate Login, The Shemitah Cycle Stock Market crash in 2021, Correlation Bitcoin dominance and the Bitcoin price. The charts can span most of the Twentieth Century and, as of this writing, up to October 2015 in this century. When you are sowing the eighth year, you can still eat old things from the crop, eating the old until the ninth year when its crop comes in.. The Shemitah of 2015 produced the worst year for the stock market in seven years, or since 2008 - the last Shemitah! Time Cycles Got It Right; What Do They Say Now? Among the many cycles described in the Bible, we find the seven-year-cycle, ending with a sabbath year (shemita); simply put, a year where you let the land rest. It may be too late to soften the impact of the next crash, but lets have smarter economic minds start thinking now whether we can use this insight to make our economies more sustainable and resilient for the future. The Largest Percent Changes in the Dow Jones industrial Average, RankDateCloseNet Change% ChangeShemitah Years or Wake11987-10-191738.74508.0022.6121929-10-28260.6438.3312.82 31899-12-1858.277.9411.99 41929-10-29230.0730.5711.73 51929-11-06232.1325.559.92 61932-08-1263.115.798.40 71907-03-1476.236.898.29 81987-10-261793.93156.838.0492008-10-158577.91733.087.87101933-07-2188.717.557.84 111937-10-18125.7310.577.75122008-12-018149.09679.957.70132008-10-098579.19678.917.33141917-02-0188.526.917.24151997-10-277161.15554.267.18 161932-10-0566.075.097.15 172001-09-178920.7684.817.13181931-09-24107.798.207.07191933-07-2096.267.327.07 202008-09-2910365.45777.686.98. Also, the value of property or farm land being sold was to be prorated relative to the time left before the next Year of Jubilee. 25:4). Notice the Shmita was nearly the low. Looks like things are right on target. Eight months later, the S&P 500 loss through August has exceeded 10% for only the twelfth time since 1926. Perhaps 2022, the next Shmita year, will have some upheavals. It is not surprising, therefore, that there are downturns in the market which occur outside of a Shemitah year. United States enters WWI. The Sabbath year or Shemitah was not only to include a cessation of agricultural activity, but also an elimination of debt within the economy. If the reset is not expected, (and it usually isnt), experience shows that it comes upon us anyway, as a nasty surprise. 1916-1917 - 40% of the US stock market value wiped out. This universal Shemitah Effect would presumably occur even if the nations did not follow the Mosaic principles of this law. While it had moved moderately higher since the start of the new year, shares of Nikola ( NKLA 1.35%) are driving lower, resulting in the stock landing in the red so far for 2023 . This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. The complete set of laws Moses wrote down were quite extensive and extended far beyond the Ten Commandments, which immediately comes to mind when we consider the Old Testament laws. In particular, we should seriously consider whether such a force really exists and if it is affecting the unfolding of world events in the last days. Global recession. Not planting nor harvesting any crops so the soil can recover from 6 years of growing and harvesting. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. sets of seven years (7x7 Shmita years) points to the 50th year - Jubilee. One of the main purposes of the Sabbaths and Shemitahs was to put a damper on the lust for more money and material things, and through this process help return the hearts of the people back to a reliance on God, who is after all the only true source of everything that we have in life. We arent suggesting one pile into them with yields near 4% and inflation around 8%, but we think they have suffered a much more substantial de-rating than large-cap stocks. Towers symbolize a nation's power and pridethis connection can be seen from the very first Im not the first analyst using time cycles to predict movements in the financial markets. In fact, the Lord promised that the crop of the sixth year would be so bountiful that it would supply them with food for 3 full years: But if you say, What are we going to eat on the seventh year if we do not sow or gather in our crops?. After falling about 50% in 2022, Nvidia 's (NASDAQ: NVDA) share prices . The year 2022 on the Jewish calendar is a Shmita yearhistorically considered to be a year of rest, or sabbatical, following six years of work. The Bible is absolutely a book of great importance, at least for lots of religious people. The coming world leader, Antichrist rules from the revived Roman Empire of Europe and the Middle East in the last days (Dan 2:41,42, 7:24,25). Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. land and that which was built up was wiped away. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Economic theory and policy struggle to understand and effectively address the business cycle. More importantly, its a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle. 1-ranked portfolio strategist on Wall Street last year.As many analysts remained bullish on the market exiting 2021, Wilson . This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Although this represents a majority of Shemitah years over this time frame, the remaining ones which occurred in 1923-1924, 1944-1945, 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1979-1980, and 1993-1994 represent times when the market either grew or stayed mostly unchanged. Table 1. Thus, although the economic busts that he relates to Shemitahs really did occur, the book leaves us with an incomplete picture of the actual statistical significance of the phenomenon. 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