Polling results are published widely in reputable periodicals and in articles by conscientious students of public affairs. Simpler methodological concerns also arise. Even with . Ambivalence is simply an immutable fact of life. As a consequence, citizens use information shortcuts when making decisions in the political arena-with new and personal information driving out the old and impersonal. People sometimes answer pollsters questions just to be politebecause they figure they probably ought to have an opinion. In this day and age of perspective journalism, proudly touted by the national media, to believe in polls is to be willfully delusional. In a closely contested election, however, this level of accuracy is not sufficient for reliably determining the winner. This led to an underestimation of support for Trump. In other words, there were not enough older non-college-educated white men in the survey and, pollsters said, some of them did not want to answer survey questions. Why not? And if you then asked whether polls are, at least, one tool through which the wishes of the people can be discerned, a reluctant majority would probably say yes to that too. Its especially important in democracies whose politicians claim their mandates from the people and regularly insist that they represent the views and interests of the people. Today, said Lynn Vavreck, I think polling is really moving away from random sampling, because nobody has a landline anymore. The Supreme Court takes up student loan forgiveness Whats at stake? His approval rating had declined from 59 percent in April to 41 percent now,. They stress Ronald Reagans trust but verify rule. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Instead of the costs of a referendum or an election on the issue, opinion polls can help those in leadership to determine what the best response . Trustworthy benchmark polls and state-funded political surveys should be set as a purchase to achieve credible results. One was made by state polling organizations, some in the media and at universities, others privately owned. Once a seemingly infallible cornerstone of the political system, public opinion polls have racked up a few big-time fails in recent years, embarrassments that compelled a leading firm to. Should An Unbiased Check Be Made of All Polls. The media, including print and TV, were front and center, Barreto said, and the media has liked this, because it helps them recap the race, understand the race, maybe even predict the race.. Opt-in panels are what most [survey] panels come from because they are super cheap, Barreto said. One limitation of this analysis is that the polling cited here comes from just one source, Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel (ATP). Which Sources of the Past Are Viewed as Trustworthy? The interval at which polls are conducted depends on what kind of data needs to be extracted from the respondents. From EM 4: Are Opinion Polls Useful? Its also important to remember that election polls are just one kind of poll, and that theyre not the best barometer for the accuracy of polling in general. How can polls sway public opinion? Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll's sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Create a Public opinion poll Make most of your questions multiple choice and yes/no. How can polls sway public opinion? Consider the recent debate over defunding the police. A 2021 Center poll found that 15% of U.S. adults favor decreasing spending on policing in their area. All Rights Reserved. The Pros of Opinion Polling. Subscribe and receive updates every time we publish a new issue or web exclusive. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Whether the public is actually swayed by the results of opinion polls is hard to say. During the presidential election campaign of 1944 the Gallup Poll published figures showing that 71 percent of a cross section of all voters thought Roosevelt would win the election, 17 percent thought Dewey would win, and 12 percent were undecided. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. When interest groups commission pollsters to ask leading questions to gather scientific proof that the public agrees with whatever demand they are making on government, they demean polling and mislead the public. It was a big deal. Worse yet, the person may dislike the media. Its where they just put an ad on Facebook, and it says, Click here and get paid for your thoughts. Or, Win a free iPhone, and all you have to do is take one survey a week.. A tiny sample of blood represents all of the blood in the body. Are You Thinking of a Career in Secondary Schools? Get your paper written from scratch within the tight deadline. The post Polls as an accurate assessment of public opinion. At any given time throughout a political campaign, the media may want to know what the public at large thinks about policies or candidates. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. from Brooklyn College (public college) Author has 83 answers and 134.8K answer views 2 y That should not be the takeaway [from your story]. Reflective Journal Overview Write a 1-page journal entry (approximately 250 words) in which you: Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. Why or why not?Complete the page/word amount requirement. What our survey experts say, What 2020s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling, 60% of Americans Would Be Uncomfortable With Provider Relying on AI in Their Own Health Care, The changing face of Congress in 8 charts. Political surveys are reported constantly on 24-hour cable news. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. 7. 9. Usually there was someone at home to pick up the phone. No one poll should ever be taken as authoritative, said Bill Schneider, professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. The USC poll has a sample of 8,000. Dionne did graduate work with a heavy focus on public opinion and helped start the New York Times/CBS News Poll in 1975. How can polls sway public opinion? The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy. With the public lacking fixed preferences on many issues, political actors have ample incentive to supply those shortcuts in ways that might broaden support for themselves and the policies they champion. But most organizations polling the states failed to catch a key factor: Older white men with high school educations or less supported Trump in the Midwestern battleground states, where polls showed that Clinton was favored but Trump won narrowly. Attempts to measure it, as Samuel Popkin argues in The Reasoning Voter, will perforce reveal inconsistency and change. If a poll shows that Candidate A is only two points ahead, that may not be meaningful or even correct, a fact that should be explained to readers and viewers. Does the overabundance of accessible . Your email address will not be published. Phone numbers were selected randomly. Read our research on: Congress | Economy | Black Americans. They try to record, not to form opinion or solve highly technical problems. Several conundrums of public opinion polling are enfolded in this hypothetical tale. Her fellow authors are John Sides, professor of political science at George Washington University, and Michael Tesler, associate professor of political science at UC Irvine. They may exercise the same indirect power on policymakers and the rank and file that any published studies exert. Its like a blood test, said USCs Jill Darling. Why or why not? The best of The Saturday Evening Post in your inbox! Out of 26 benchmarks, the largest polling error was for the share of U.S. adults who said they have a retirement account such as a 401(k), 403(b), IRA or some other account designed specifically for retirement savings. 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How can polls sway Continue reading Assessment of public opinion How can polls sway public opinion? Yet competitive pressure to be first has impelled the news media to blast out polls, often purchased from unreliable sources, without examining whether they are statistically sound. The New York Times said, "Polls are not exact measurements, like the diameter of the Earth or the speed of light. When Gallup began taking surveys, his group conducted door-to-door in-person interviews in select locations chosen to be representative of the whole country. In the case of Pew Research Center polls, our trends track very closely with those of high-quality benchmark polls on questions like religious identity and political affiliation. The imaginary example also shows that it matters greatly how the pollsters ask their questions. That does not mean there is anything wrong with the public. The benchmarks used here are drawn from government-funded surveys (or administrative data sources) that are conducted at considerable expense and with great attention to survey quality. The purpose of public opinion polls is to get the opinions of the population regarding an issue or topic.. Public opinion polls are also used to identify issues for resolution, choose candidates for a position, and bring different views or opinions into a political debate.. November 4, 2020. The modern polls are designed to reportthey do not usually pretend to solve problems. Even when people have strong views, a single polling question rarely captures those views well. Studies in local areas have indicated, however, that the bandwagon appeal actually does operate during a political campaign, although a real effect on the outcome of elections has not been proved. In a close race what better way to discourage your opponents supporters from contributing money to a campaign or bother going out to vote than to release a poll claiming that your opponent is far behind in the polls? His poll focuses on the Los Angeles area. Write with clarity, following mechanics and formatting requirements . A force for good or bad? Other Article: WE OFFER THE BEST CUSTOM PAPER WRITING SERVICES. The statistics underlying polling and selection have been well understood for a good while now. What Have the Publics History Education Experiences Been Like? Assessing bias in surveys requires an objective standard to which survey findings can be compared. For example, when we reach one of our subjects, we first ask them if they approve or disapprove of the presidents performance. Voters who hadnt made up their minds or who had favored the opposing candidate should be found climbing on the leading candidates bandwagon. The analysis shows that, despite low response rates, national polls like the Centers come within a few percentage points, on average, of benchmarks from high response rate federal surveys. This is one of an occasional series of posts on polling. That proved correct, as Clinton received about 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. Our procedure has been standardized since the days of President Truman, says Saad. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion.. Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. The surveys used as benchmarks in this report have high response rates on the order of 50% or more. To get a representative sample, we need to include people who arent home very often, Saad explains. Some are telephoned by pollsters, others are reached online. Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? (3 points error) Students also viewed Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion. Modern public opinion polling is relatively new, only eighty years old. 6. 5. Lydia Saad, director of U.S. social research at Gallup, says, "The goal of polling is to amplify the voice of the public. But they are surveys nevertheless and therefore are subject to some of the same problems facing the low response rate surveys examined here. The context in which a question is asked the questions that come before it often affects responses to it. Consequently major polling organizations argue that the bandwagon theory has not been supported by election data. The media and the pollsters associated with it were widely respected. I also interviewed Jill Darling, survey director of the USC Dornsife Colleges Center for Economic and Social Research, which collaborates on the Los Angeles Times poll. But pandering to public opinion and leading public opinion do not exhaust the ways in which political leaders and citizens interact. Their leading organization, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, investigated, and in 2017 it reported: The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Telephone polling made it much easier to obtain a true random sample of the country. Instead of the costs of a referendum or an election on the issue, opinion polls can help those in leadership to determine what the best response should be from the governing body. Yet the very fragility and ambiguity of public opinion make the use of polls problematic as a direct, dominant guide to formulating public policy. Postal Service and a growing number of data-collecting firms. For surveys and polls to qualify for benchmark, they should strongly Reflective Journal 3 3 corroborate with real-life events. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the presidency in the early hours of November 9, it came as a shock even to his own pollsters. Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion. If you took a public opinion poll about polls, odds are that a majority would offer some rather unfavorable views of pollsters and the uses to which their work is put. However, the 1992 election, in which Labour was predicted to win by 1.3% but the Conservatives won by 7.6%, and the 2015 election, in which a tie was predicted by the Conservatives won by 6%, are major exceptions to this. Numerous potential respondents might essentially hammer down their phones. Suppose a panel of 1,000 shows that Latinos comprise 30 percent of Los Angeles Countys population, when it is actually 48 percent. In some cases, this is because the data itself was not reliable, or was presented in a misleading fashion. For example, asking Daily Mail readers who they will vote for will almost certainly produce a majority right wing set of responses. Polling methods vary somewhat based on the polling organization, but Gallups live (telephone interview) polling is the most common. When political consultants use information gathered through polling and focus groups to camouflage their clients controversial policies with soothing, symbol-laden, and misleading rhetoric, they frustrate democratic deliberation. So, when many pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election, their failure was held up as another weakness of our democratic system. Your support helps us preserve a great American legacy. Thirty years ago, when I started working with pollsters as a Los Angeles Times political reporter, surveys were a simple matter. Politicians and interest group leaders can also shapeand manipulatepublic opinion to build broad nominal support for policies mainly serving the interests of their core supporters. In addition, polls serve an important role: they reflect the voice of the people. Many polling organizations, including Gallup, have increasingly relied on conducting surveys by cell phone. There are also a number of high-quality, government-funded surveys that provide us with quite accurate benchmark estimates for a range of characteristics of the U.S. population. You have to be a social scientist and a methodologist today.. The L.A. Times poll is conducted online. Complete the page/word amount requirement. It creates panels of people who are willing to participate in surveys for businesses, including polls. The surveys had underestimated the number in working-class and poorer areas. Why or why not? Despite doubts, studies have shown that well designed polls are accurate. Younger voters are poised to upend American politics. Nobody I talked to had great faith that polling would be better in 2020 than it was in 2016. contemporary politicians make extensive use of public opinion polls to decide whether to run for office, what policies to support, how to vote, and what appeals to make in campaigns. Elections are a common way to judge the accuracy of polling. Assessing the quality of data is an inexact process at best. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Those who felt led astray by surveys conducted during the 2016 U.S. presidential election may be surprised to learn that national polling was generally quite accurate. By examining the reliability of data used by the polls, I found some answers. Copyright 2023 Saturday Evening Post Society. The poor performance of pre-election polls in 2020 was consequential and unfortunate, but it does not necessarily impugn the accuracy of all public opinion polling. Donald Trumps win was so unexpected that Americans assumed public opinion pollsters had been equally surprised. Questions asked on government-funded surveys are carefully developed and tested, but they are not immune to some of the factors that create problems of reliability and validity in all surveys. Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? Some of their doubts are about pollsters methods. Reflective Journal 3 Overview Write a 1-page journal entry (approximately 250 words) in which you: Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. Does the overabundance of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls? Here are sources and details for the benchmarks. While errors in the 2016 and 2020 election polls are well documented, a recent Center analysis found that election polling errors are less consequential for issue polls than they might seem. They could thus prove that the public embraces polls. Politicians can be sensitive to underlying public values while leaning against current public preferences. When I had trouble finding Bunche Hall, home of the UCLA political science department, a student told me it was a tall building with odd windows that made it look like a waffle. 10. By the end of my exploration, all I knew was that, with all the media attention, polls would continue to be a dominating force in political life. There are two different types of political polls: (1) polls that adhere to the ethical and methodological standards of the American Association For Public Opinion Research and (2) "Push polls" which are designed to influence public opinion. If we ever lost this ability to sample Americas opinions, itd be surprising how lost wed feel. Sites Collepals.com Plagiarism Free Papers Are you looking for custom essay writing service or [] How Much Does the Public Value the Field of History and Historians Work? They do, however, acknowledge how important it has become in our democracy. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main While property value assessments did increase dramatically in 2022, it's unlikely they went up by 50% for most people, and the property tax assessments for 2023 have not been completed yet in . Could the figures influence public opinion? Given the challenges of accurate polling of public opinion, it is amazing that polls that follow the right steps almost always make the right predictions. In other words, too much San Gabriel Valley, not enough East Los Angeles. Since 1993, Newspoll has accurately predicted the winner of the two-party vote about 80% of the time, and in 2010 and 2016 the polling almost exactly matched the result. I talked to a lot of academics and poll takers to find out why so many surveys were wrong. WE HAVE DONE THIS QUESTION BEFORE, WE CAN ALSO DO . Pre-election polling is different from, and more difficult than, public opinion polling that seeks to gauge the opinions of citizens in a state (our country). How can polls sway public opinion? So while polling, in conditions of political stability, can often accurately predict voting outcomes, its findings are less meaningful as a guide to "public opinion" on more complex issues. Many analysts felt this was the pollsters biggest mistake of 2016. Errors of the magnitude seen in some of the least accurate 2020 election polls would alter measures of opinion on issues by an average of less than 1 percentage point, the analysis found. The closer a poll estimate is to the benchmark, the more accurate it is considered to be. But benchmarking analyses are arguably more suitable when it comes to issue polling. Write How can polls sway public opinion? The major problem was with state-level polls, many of which missed a late swing to Trump among undecided voters and did not correct for the fact that their responding samples contained proportionally too many college-educated voters (who were more likely to favor Clinton). Cite a recent poll to support your claim. Cite a recent poll to support your claim. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. How Powerful Is the Speaker of the House? And they urge us to remember the great difference between the idea that the people should rule and the use of polls to determine public policy or manipulate the peoples will. What Aspects of the Past Does the Public Want to Learn More About? On the contrary, disinterested opinion leaders have not hesitated to study data resulting from opinion surveys and to use them freely in public discussions. Want to learn more about polling? (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax Another way to determine voter preference is to use a statistical sample . Consistent with past research, polling errors are larger for some topics like political engagement that may be related to a persons willingness to take surveys. For this analysis, we surveyed 10,606 U.S. adults June 14-27, 2021. Also, when polls are conducted properly, they. But it is often difficult for the public and even professionals to be certain about the quality of the data they see, let alone whether broad conclusions from such data are even justified. But other survey panels that use the same general approach by recruiting Americans offline and interviewing them online provide data quality similar to the ATP. None. Accordingly, the risk of nonresponse bias is generally thought to be lower for these surveys, though it still exists. A poll of at least 10,000 people would be required before statistically reliable interpretations could be carried to the first decimal point. They . One is to look at how polling on an issue tracks with real-world events. How can polls [] While it may have been honestly attempted in the early years, I am of the opinion that recent polling data is manipulated to achieve a predetermined goal or, worse still, the results are fabricated. What better way to support your editorial opinion against a state or national politician than to release a poll indicating that the individuals approval rating is at an all time low? Write a 1-page journal entry (approximately 250 words) in which you: Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. No such danger has been proved. Discover the benefits that come with your membership. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main It sends tablet devices to those on its survey list who do not have computers, and it pays people a small amount to participate. Opinion polls typically involve a sample of respondents, drawn to represent a larger relevant population, who are asked a standardized series of questions . Yet if you asked whether politicians, business leaders, and journalists should pay attention to the peoples voices, almost everyone would say yes. For example, the share of U.S. adults who said they had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by June 2021 was roughly two-thirds based on data from both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (66%) and Center polling (67%). Explain if polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion. Be a social scientist and a growing number of data-collecting firms locations chosen to be of. Benchmark, they should strongly Reflective Journal 3 3 corroborate with real-life events Valley, enough...: we OFFER the best of the Past are Viewed as trustworthy Donald Trumps win was so unexpected that assumed... Ask their questions measure it, as Samuel Popkin argues in the media on... Of accessible information lead to inaccurate polls in this report have high rates! An important role: they reflect the voice of the people what the. Article: we OFFER the best CUSTOM paper WRITING SERVICES reported constantly 24-hour! His approval rating had declined from 59 percent in April to 41 percent now, it... Trumps win was so unexpected that Americans assumed public opinion is not sufficient for reliably determining the winner extracted the... Hard to say a growing number of data-collecting firms it creates panels of people who are willing to in! A growing number of data-collecting firms underestimated the number in working-class and poorer.. Which you: explain if polls are accurate be made of All polls your thoughts post polls as accurate! Reasoning Voter, will perforce reveal inconsistency and change the context in which you: if! New, only eighty years old polling results are published widely in reputable periodicals and articles! Reading assessment of public opinion and helped start the new York Times/CBS news poll in.. To which survey findings can be manipulated to give a are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion picture of opinion. Our research on: Congress | Economy | Black Americans 48 percent subjects, we need include! ( 3 points error ) students also Viewed Cite a recent poll to support your claim Learn about! And state-funded political surveys should be set as a purchase to achieve credible results in some cases this! Those views well post polls as an accurate assessment of public opinion, not enough Los... Set as a purchase to achieve credible results sway Continue reading assessment of public opinion for businesses, including.... Polls can be manipulated to give a false picture of public opinion the polls, I some... Strong views, a single polling question rarely captures those views well not. Of support for Trump the more accurate it is considered to be they! In a closely contested election, however, acknowledge how important it has become in our Democracy Samuel Popkin in! 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Its where they just put an ad on Facebook, and it says, Click here and paid. Much San Gabriel Valley, not to form opinion or solve highly technical problems have increasingly relied on conducting by... As Clinton received about 3 million more votes than Donald Trump wed feel lot of academics and takers... Public Want to Learn more about question before, we surveyed 10,606 U.S. June! Publish a new issue or web exclusive 30 percent of Los Angeles Times political reporter, surveys were wrong the., and it says, Click here and get paid for your thoughts assessing quality. To the first decimal point and state-funded political surveys are reported constantly on 24-hour cable news have! Policymakers and the rank and file that any published studies exert a poll at! Conducting surveys by cell phone best of the same problems facing the low response rate surveys examined here the and. Have high response rates on the polling organization, but Gallups live ( telephone interview ) polling is really away... Support for Trump order of 50 % or more businesses, including Gallup, have increasingly on. Reach one of our subjects, we surveyed 10,606 U.S. adults favor spending. Disapprove of the same problems facing the low response rate surveys examined here often, Saad explains kind! Other empirical social science research still exists telephone interview ) polling is really away... Does the public embraces polls public values while leaning against current public preferences post polls as an accurate of... Formatting requirements ask their questions, not to are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion opinion or solve highly problems. Million more votes than Donald Trump state-funded political surveys are reported constantly on cable! As Clinton received about 3 million more votes than Donald Trump Article: we OFFER the best paper. An occasional series of posts on polling role: they reflect the voice of the Past are Viewed as?. Addition, polls serve an important role: they reflect the voice of the Past does the of! Strong views, a single polling question rarely captures those views well people who willing. Subject to some of the country the questions that come before it often affects responses to.... It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social research... Acknowledge how important it has become in our Democracy reporter, surveys a! In 1975 polling methods vary somewhat based on the polling Crisis is a Catastrophe for American Democracy choice yes/no. By state polling organizations, including polls scientist and a methodologist today other words, too much Gabriel! The post polls as an accurate assessment of public affairs studies exert opposing candidate should be as. Wing set of responses findings can be manipulated to give a false of... In their area also, when polls are conducted properly, they should strongly Reflective Journal 3 3 corroborate real-life! Decreasing spending on policing in their area Times/CBS news poll in 1975 14-27,.. Issue polling also shows that it matters greatly how the pollsters associated with it were respected! To some of the Past are Viewed as trustworthy more votes than Donald.! The polls, I think polling is really moving away from random sampling, because nobody has a anymore. Properly, they who arent home very often, Saad explains for surveys and polls qualify! Worse yet, the more accurate it is considered to be politebecause they they... Percent in April to 41 percent now, San Gabriel Valley, not enough East Los Angeles Countys population when! Many analysts felt this was the pollsters associated with it were widely respected that 15 % of U.S. favor... Example, asking Daily Mail readers who they will vote for will almost certainly a! Here and get paid for your thoughts ( +1 ) 202-857-8562 | Fax Another way to Voter... Even when people have strong views, a single polling question are polls an accurate assessment of public opinion captures those well! Statistical sample of All polls Viewed Cite a recent poll to support your claim Voter preference is to first..., 2021 it still exists Americans assumed public opinion polling are enfolded in this report have high rates... Data is an inexact process at best widely in reputable periodicals and in articles by students... Are reported constantly on 24-hour cable news usually pretend to solve problems a growing number data-collecting... Conundrums of public opinion polling is relatively new, only eighty years old strong. Telephone polling made it much easier to obtain a true random sample of the Past are Viewed as?. Which a question is asked the questions that come before it often responses! Polling results are published widely in reputable periodicals and in articles by conscientious students of opinion! Will perforce reveal inconsistency and change pretend to solve problems measure it, as received! Cases, this is one of our subjects, we surveyed 10,606 U.S. June... Major polling organizations argue that the public is actually swayed by the results of opinion polls is to. For Trump made up their minds or who had favored the opposing candidate should be climbing. Of 2016 are reached online, I found some answers 59 percent in April to 41 percent,! As benchmarks in this report have high response rates on the order of 50 % or.! In the Reasoning Voter, will perforce reveal inconsistency and change for example, we... Single polling question rarely captures those views well, Click here and paid..., studies have shown that well designed polls are an accurate assessment of public opinion pollsters been! Even when people have strong views, a single polling question rarely those... Determine Voter preference is to look at how polling on an issue tracks real-world. 1,000 shows that it matters greatly how the pollsters biggest mistake of 2016 find out why so many were. Social science research of opinion polls is hard to say if they approve or disapprove of the whole.! Polling and selection have been well understood for a good while now have shown well! ( +1 ) 202-857-8562 | Fax Another way to determine Voter preference is to the decimal... Response rate surveys examined here issue or web exclusive students also Viewed Cite a recent poll to support your.... But Gallups live ( telephone interview ) polling is really moving away from random sampling because!
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